‘Myths, illusions & peace’

The move to normalize relations between the U.S. and Libya accelerates next month when Muammar Kaddafi makes his first-ever trip to America to address the U.N. The arrival of Kaddafi is already creating problems for New York security officials: he travels with a massive, heated Bedouin tent. Libyan officials recently asked permission for Kaddafi to pitch it in Central Park. “The location for the tent is still an open question,” says a senior State Department official who asked not to be identified talking about sensitive matters. (One alternative: coax Kaddafi, and his retinue of female bodyguards, to pitch the tent on Libyan-owned property in New Jersey.)

Yukos Oil’s Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s wealthiest man, is serving an eight-year prison sentence for fraud and tax evasion. Kremlin critics say the charges stemmed from the former oligarch’s opposition to then-president Vladimir Putin. Since March, Khodorkovsky has been on trial again, this time for alleged theft, and the court has refused to allow him to address the allegations against him. In written responses to questions submitted to his lawyers by NEWSWEEK’s Russian-language partner, Russky NEWSWEEK, Khodorkovsky talked about Putin, the charges against him, and the Russian justice system. Excerpts:

India’s superrich lose the limelight.

Why Germany and Japan are in pain.

How the LDP hung on so long.

The man who killed the ruling party was its star.

The number of Jewish settlers in the Palestinian territories has more than doubled since 1993, but the numbers are misleading. The fastest-growing cohort—nearly one third—are the ultra-Orthodox, who tend to be far less hawkish than the ultranationalists removed from Gaza in 2005. Another third are “economic settlers,” who moved to the West Bank for the cheap rents and short commutes to Jerusalem. Many could probably be persuaded to leave with the right financial incentives. And for all the talk of “natural growth,” only 9,602 babies were born to settlers in 2007, while 17,007 newcomers moved in, according to Peace Now. Raising barriers to further immigration could have a big impact.

The pictures are certainly gripping: a purple index finger in Iraq, a line of burqa-clad women in Afghanistan. International officials who oversee rebuilding countries often try to nudge them toward democracy as soon as possible. But political scientists now think that’s getting it backward. Paul Collier, a professor at Oxford and author of The Bottom Billion, has run exhaustive studies of post-conflict societies, to learn what factors lead to peace. His conclusion? Elections don’t help. Although the risk of violence decreases during an election year, in the following year it more than doubles, from 5.2 to 10.6 percent. Overall, an election slightly raises the odds that a country will relapse into civil war. “What an election produces is a winner and a loser,” says Collier. “And the loser is unreconciled.” Ballots only temporarily replace rockets and AK-47s.

When does a rising power become a threat? There is seldom a single moment. A century ago, AngloGerman antagonism was still a relatively new phenomenon; an alliance between the two empires seemed plausible as late as 1899. Likewise, the United States took time to identify Japan as a serious rival in the Pacific region; it was not until the 1930s that relations really soured. In both cases, the perception of a strategic threat was slow to grow. But grow it did—and ultimately it led to war. Could the same be happening to the United States and China today? Are we imperceptibly but inexorably slipping from cooperation to competition?